Like Arnold Schwarzenegger hitting a set of lat pull downs… WE ARE SO BACK.
After a (much needed) six week hiatus, we finally have UFC fights in our life again. There’s an interim title fight, several other bangers, and we get to watch Ateba Gautier absolutely nuke someone. There’s a lot to look forward to, so let’s jump in.
(Bets listed at the bottom, if you’re in a rush).
Justin Gaethje (+200) vs Paddy Pimblett (-240)
My initial thoughts are to back Gaethje here, though I’m not sure if I’ll end up getting there. I think this fight is closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest, so there may be some value in getting Gaethje at +200.
Who’s the better striker? Gaethje. He also has more power. And do we think Paddy will be able to get this to the ground and style on him? I honestly don’t think so. What’s Paddy’s win condition if he can’t get it to the ground? He could outwork Gaethje, but I don’t think he wants to be in a pure striking match.
And let’s look at recent competition. For Gaethje:
- Rafael Fiziev x2
- Max Holloway
- Dustin Poirier
- Charles Oliveira
- Michael Chandler
- Khabib
For Paddy:
- Michael Chandler
- King Bobby Green (washed)
- Tony Ferguson (washed)
- Jared Gordon (split decision win, that he actually lost)
- Jordan Leavitt
This is a huge step up in competition for Paddy. There’s no meat on the bone at -240. You could get cute and play his submission prop, but that’s only +140, and I can’t envision a fight where Paddy’s able to dominate Gaethje and control him on the ground.
It’s Gaethje at +200 or pass, and ultimately I think I’m electing to pass. That staff infection on his neck is disgusting, first and foremost, but also enough for me to lay off.
Sean O’Malley (-210) vs Song Yadong (+175)
Man am I excited for this scrap. Two technical fighters – so it could make for a banger or it could end up being boring. High level MMA, I’m pumped either way!
I can’t decide who I’d want to back though, which means I probably need to just walk away.
Sean’s length and reach should cause a whole lot of problems for Song. I think he’ll sit on the outside and try to sharpshoot him the entire match. Song on the other hand has the wild card of being able to mix in some grappling. In a close fight, if he’s able to get inside and get O’Malley to the ground, he can easily ride out a decision win.
So Sean’s the better striker, Song may have a wild card. How will it play out? I think I’ve seen enough takedown defense out of Sean in his two fights against Merab and in his fight against Petr Yan. Merab is an absolute goblin and, while he was able to take Suga down a good amount, he never really controlled him for overly long periods of time.
In my opinion, Sean gets this done at about a 60/40 clip, which is basically right where the odds lie. Song by sub at +2500 caught my attention, but I can’t pull the trigger.
This fight is priced correctly, in my opinion, and for that reason I’m out. Just gonna sit back and enjoy this one.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-320) vs Derrick Lewis (+260)
Having a tough time separating what I think is going to happen, compared to what I want to happen.
What I think is going to happen, is Waldo is going to use his length and boxing skills to skirt the outside and jab the Black Beast to death. Waldo is way more refined, and technical. And also not 41 years old.
What the entire world wants to happen, is to see Lewis send him to the shadow realm and take his shorts off for a post-fight interview. I mean, who doesn’t love Derrick Lewis. The question is: can that happen?
Absolutely it can. He’s 41, but power is the last thing to go. One shot from Lewis will put your lights out. If he’s able to get inside and land a haymaker, WCA is going to be in for a world of pain.
Now, I’m not saying it’s going to happen. I’m saying it could happen. Any Derrick Lewis fight could play out like that. So in that sense, no way in hell would I ever lay the -310 price tag on Waldo. I think that’s absolutely insane.
But I’ll tell you what. Life’s too short not to play Derrick Lewis KO props. And it’s nice and juicy too, sitting at +350. I will have a small wager on that. I’ll take the bait.
Bets: Derrick Lewis by KO +350
Rose Namajunas (+260) vs Natalia Silva (-320)
It’s Natty Ice all day for me in this one. I think she’s the real deal, and I’m hopping on this rocket ship until she let’s me down.
Meanwhile, Rose has been meh recently. Taking a look at her record, she has only lost to the best of the best – Blanchfield, Fiorot, Esparza. Joking about Esparza, but she’s shown she can hang with the best. I just think her moving up to 125 was not the best decision. She gets out muscled and outsized.
So give me Natalia Silva moneyline here at -320. Her to win by decision is only -200. I’ll lay the extra juice, just in case. I’ll use this as a parlay piece in a few other bets.
Bets: Natalia Silva ML (-320), Parlay Piece
Jean Silva (-240) vs Arnold Allen (+200)
I’ll be honest. I can’t figure Jean Silva out. Not yet, at least. I think we all have this image of him in our head as an absolute psycho world beater. And to be fair… he is exactly that. He just kind of stands around too much for my liking. He’ll stand there and dap up his opponent and be buddy-buddy. And then usually he’ll knock your lights out right after..
But I just don’t have a full grasp on how good he is. I do know that Arnold Allen is as solid as they come. He’s always game, and he’ll fight for your dollar.
I’m going to stay away from this fight and just enjoy it, and learn more about Silva. Allen at +200 is really enticing, but I’m trying to be more selective and patient this year with my bets. We’ll see how long that lasts, but for now, I’m out.
Prelims
No surprises here, but Umar is an absolute lock against Figgy. At -1500 you’re not really adding much to your parlays though. I’m considering playing him inside the distance at +120. Figgy is prone to gassing out late. Going to have to think about that one.
I’m also super excited to watch Ateba Gautier fight. I don’t know a whole lot about Pulyaev. I do know that Gautier is a physical specimen, to the likes of Francis Ngannou. Sitting at -950, again, you won’t be adding much to your parlays by adding him. I’m going to see if my book has the “Gone in 60 seconds” prop – which is Gautier to win by KO in the first minute. If it’s juicy enough, I’ll fire.
I will be backing Modestas Bukauskas. Wish me luck. My rationale is that Nikita Krylov has looked completely washed as of late, getting knocked out in his last two fights (after a 2 year layoff). If you want a fun rabbit hole to fall in, try to figure out what he was doing in those 2 years. I’ve heard rumors that he was fighting in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Whatever he was doing, he has looked awful since he returned. So Bukauskas moneyline at -133 is a play for me.
Some really weird sh** going on in the Alex Hernandez vs Michael Johnson fight. Johnson was a +160 underdog as of yesterday. This morning he’s sitting at -110. Send Kash Patel to investigate this. Kidding… But what does someone know? Too sketchy for me, I’m out.
I’ll also be playing the over 1.5 rounds in the Hokit vs Freeman fight at -180. A wrestler vs a Greco Roman specialist. Neither of these guys are particularly great strikers, and both should have decent takedown defense. I can see this being a heavyweight slog, and if I’m going to watch a heavyweight slog, I may as well make some money off it.
Admittedly, I don’t know anything about Ty Miller. But people I respect and trust say he’s the real deal. So I’ll be adding his moneyline into a few parlays, around -650.
Bets
Methods:
- Derrick Lewis by KO (+350)
- Umar Nurmagomedov ITD (+120)
Moneylines:
- Modestas Bukauskas ML (-133)
Parlay Pieces:
- Natalia Silva ML (-320)
- Ateba Gautier by KO (-475)
- Denzel Freeman vs Josh Hokit over 1.5 Rounds (-180)
- Ty Miller ML (-625)
Fight Predictions:
- Justin Gaethje
- Sean O’Malley
- Derrick Lewis
- Natalia Silva
- Jean Silva
- Umar Nurmagomedov
- Ateba Gautier
- Modestas Bukauskas
- Charles Johnson
- Michael Johnson
- Josh Hokit
- Ty Miller
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